No, it hallows them out. Cities' input are people, their output are a network effect of collaboration/creativity/productivity.
The remote work and allowing out of cities should bring price balance to real estate markets, allows for diversity with affordable housing, and allows for more flexibility for its former residents that immigrate to suburbs and smaller towns. But if the output of cities or towns or villages are network effect of collaboration/creativity/productivity, then cities as entities suffer.
But also sadly, there is probably not enough network created in smaller towns to create a vibrant collaboration over the long-term as infrastructure and suburban/urban design takes many years to implement. Vibrant towns are not just created overnight, they need to be developed. These towns might get more expensive as well, more crowded - I'm thinking Lake Tahoe as an example - and thus less rewarding to live. Arguably this has happened already in many places within driving distance of larger urban cities.
I think there are a few American examples of cities that are shells of themselves from the 1900s. St. Louis, Detroit, and Cleveland come to mind. They might be rebounding now, 50-100 years later, but can we argue that large populations leaving these cities was anything but bad for the cities wholistically?
Yes-ish? I think it's early to tell. If the positive effects are going to happen, they are going to happen over a long period of time, through accumulation of national+local policies and personal choices.
It's about choices, really, both at the political and personal level. And about trade-offs. I've been living in Milan, Italy for the past 10 years, but, like most of the people living in Milan, I grew up in a countryside village.
Came for the job, stayed for the job, but now, like many, I'm reconsidering my choices.
It's not straightforward though. As much as I long for lower rents, green hills, milder summers, Milan is a quintessential business-centric city. Money is here. Big fish clients are here. Also: the city visibly improved during the past few years. I don't own a car in Milan, and that's a big plus in terms of quality of life — coming from a village in the middle of nowhere, I know what does it mean to need a car to go anywhere.
As and independent consultant, I can twist and turn the way I do business to adapt to smaller clients who don't care if I work remotely, allowing me to expand to international clients too. But that's not for everybody, I would argue that there's a very tiny percentage of people that could even think about the choices and opportunities I could think about.
For most people coming from countryside villages or smaller cities, "living in the big city" is the peak of their life, they are not going to leave. I know a lot of people that wouldn't leave Milan even if it was burning down.
So I think it will be a good thing for some specific aspects of the city life (less load on the public transportation system on peak hours, more investments on micromobility, more walkable areas) even in the short terms, but I don't expect drastic changes on the big stuff (I don't believe rents will lower significantly, unless there a political intervention, which I doubt will ever happen — historically, at least in Milan, landlords prefer keeping a house empty to lowering the rent).
"Are people fleeing the cities for greener suburban pastures? Some faint signals may have emerged in certain places, but by and large, the data show that suburban housing markets have not strengthened at a disproportionately rapid pace compared to urban markets. Both region types appear to be hot sellers’ markets right now – while many suburban areas have seen strong improvement in housing activity in recent months, so, too, have many urban areas."
Would you consider leaving the city for a country life if you could work remotely?
- 100%. Think there's still a big business opportunity to enable this.
Would you consider moving into the city to take advantage of plummeting rents and city amenities?
- Yes, the market will do its thing and there will be more demand for cities
It's a touchy subject, but one thing I think about is the potential to find a mate. If you are happily set with a partner, moving away from density is less of a concern. If you're single, however, this central part of life suddenly proves much more challenging.
I think yes and no. I think we'll see some people start to leave the cities for more affordable housing which will cause city prices to go down as you no longer need to live close to a specific location. I think we will also see some impacts around transportation and the environment as well as there may be less traffic and people commuting into the city. However, I think we will see an impact on smaller businesses and restaurants that have come to rely on pedestrian traffic from people on lunch breaks, etc...
I think that it will be a good thing for smaller or somewhat economically depressed cities. Lower living costs will help them lure remote workers and increase opportunities for business and consumption locally.
I think that the big city exodus will be short-lived, and that to your point now is an excellent opportunity to take adv of cheaper rent as an individual or a business. What I'm particularly interested in is how the future of remote work transforms travel and tourism, the rise of the youth nomad, and views on home ownership (while it may become more attainable if condo/ house prices drop in the future, it may also become less desirable).
I think I'm right there with you tbh! I live in a city that's quite large and spread out, so the core isn't very walkable. But I like having the freedom (during non-pandemic times) to go out and about as I want to. I'm not much of a country liver myself, but it's nice that that is an option for people who want to get out of the city.
No, it hallows them out. Cities' input are people, their output are a network effect of collaboration/creativity/productivity.
The remote work and allowing out of cities should bring price balance to real estate markets, allows for diversity with affordable housing, and allows for more flexibility for its former residents that immigrate to suburbs and smaller towns. But if the output of cities or towns or villages are network effect of collaboration/creativity/productivity, then cities as entities suffer.
But also sadly, there is probably not enough network created in smaller towns to create a vibrant collaboration over the long-term as infrastructure and suburban/urban design takes many years to implement. Vibrant towns are not just created overnight, they need to be developed. These towns might get more expensive as well, more crowded - I'm thinking Lake Tahoe as an example - and thus less rewarding to live. Arguably this has happened already in many places within driving distance of larger urban cities.
I think there are a few American examples of cities that are shells of themselves from the 1900s. St. Louis, Detroit, and Cleveland come to mind. They might be rebounding now, 50-100 years later, but can we argue that large populations leaving these cities was anything but bad for the cities wholistically?
Yes-ish? I think it's early to tell. If the positive effects are going to happen, they are going to happen over a long period of time, through accumulation of national+local policies and personal choices.
It's about choices, really, both at the political and personal level. And about trade-offs. I've been living in Milan, Italy for the past 10 years, but, like most of the people living in Milan, I grew up in a countryside village.
Came for the job, stayed for the job, but now, like many, I'm reconsidering my choices.
It's not straightforward though. As much as I long for lower rents, green hills, milder summers, Milan is a quintessential business-centric city. Money is here. Big fish clients are here. Also: the city visibly improved during the past few years. I don't own a car in Milan, and that's a big plus in terms of quality of life — coming from a village in the middle of nowhere, I know what does it mean to need a car to go anywhere.
As and independent consultant, I can twist and turn the way I do business to adapt to smaller clients who don't care if I work remotely, allowing me to expand to international clients too. But that's not for everybody, I would argue that there's a very tiny percentage of people that could even think about the choices and opportunities I could think about.
For most people coming from countryside villages or smaller cities, "living in the big city" is the peak of their life, they are not going to leave. I know a lot of people that wouldn't leave Milan even if it was burning down.
So I think it will be a good thing for some specific aspects of the city life (less load on the public transportation system on peak hours, more investments on micromobility, more walkable areas) even in the short terms, but I don't expect drastic changes on the big stuff (I don't believe rents will lower significantly, unless there a political intervention, which I doubt will ever happen — historically, at least in Milan, landlords prefer keeping a house empty to lowering the rent).
Will the exodus from cities continue or is it just a pandemic thing?
- Arguably, it's not really happening, at least in the U.S. A major shift is more likely to occur gradually over time, not in weeks/months.
https://www.zillow.com/research/2020-urb-suburb-market-report-27712/
"Are people fleeing the cities for greener suburban pastures? Some faint signals may have emerged in certain places, but by and large, the data show that suburban housing markets have not strengthened at a disproportionately rapid pace compared to urban markets. Both region types appear to be hot sellers’ markets right now – while many suburban areas have seen strong improvement in housing activity in recent months, so, too, have many urban areas."
Would you consider leaving the city for a country life if you could work remotely?
- 100%. Think there's still a big business opportunity to enable this.
Would you consider moving into the city to take advantage of plummeting rents and city amenities?
- Yes, the market will do its thing and there will be more demand for cities
It's a touchy subject, but one thing I think about is the potential to find a mate. If you are happily set with a partner, moving away from density is less of a concern. If you're single, however, this central part of life suddenly proves much more challenging.
I think yes and no. I think we'll see some people start to leave the cities for more affordable housing which will cause city prices to go down as you no longer need to live close to a specific location. I think we will also see some impacts around transportation and the environment as well as there may be less traffic and people commuting into the city. However, I think we will see an impact on smaller businesses and restaurants that have come to rely on pedestrian traffic from people on lunch breaks, etc...
I think that it will be a good thing for smaller or somewhat economically depressed cities. Lower living costs will help them lure remote workers and increase opportunities for business and consumption locally.
I think that the big city exodus will be short-lived, and that to your point now is an excellent opportunity to take adv of cheaper rent as an individual or a business. What I'm particularly interested in is how the future of remote work transforms travel and tourism, the rise of the youth nomad, and views on home ownership (while it may become more attainable if condo/ house prices drop in the future, it may also become less desirable).
I think I'm right there with you tbh! I live in a city that's quite large and spread out, so the core isn't very walkable. But I like having the freedom (during non-pandemic times) to go out and about as I want to. I'm not much of a country liver myself, but it's nice that that is an option for people who want to get out of the city.